January 3, 2023

Monthly wholesale electricity prices and demand in New England, November 2022

Prices up in both day-ahead, real-time markets in November

Wholesale power prices averaged $67.32 per megawatt-hour (MWh)¹ in the Real-Time Energy Market in November 2022, up 14% compared to the previous year. Day-Ahead Energy Market averages rose to $61.72/MWh, a 9% increase from November 2021.

By the numbers

November 2022 and Percent Change from November 2021 and October 2022	November 2022	November 2021	October 2022
Average Real-Time Electricity Price ($/megawatt-hour)	$67.32	14.4%	28.6%
Average Natural Gas Price ($/MMBtu)	$5.76	2.1%	16.1%
Peak Demand	16,904 MWs	-0.8%	15.2%
Total Electricity Use	8,944 GWh	-2.3%	3.2%
Weather-Normalized Use²	9,057 GWh	-0.3%	3.7%

Drivers of wholesale electricity prices

In general, the two main drivers of wholesale electricity prices in New England are the cost of fuel used to produce electricity and consumer demand.

Power plant fuel

Fuel is typically one of the major input costs in producing electricity. Natural gas is the predominant fuel in New England, used to generate 53% of the power produced in 2021 by New England’s power plants, and natural gas-fired power plants usually set the price of wholesale electricity in the region. As a result, average wholesale electricity prices are closely linked to natural gas prices.

The average natural gas price during November was $5.76 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)³. The price was up 2% from the November 2021 average Massachusetts natural gas index price of $5.64/MMBtu. The Mass. index price is a volume-weighted average of trades at four natural gas delivery points in Massachusetts, including two Algonquin points, the Tennessee Gas Pipeline, and the Dracut Interconnect.

Wholesale electricity and natural gas prices, 2003-2022

Electricity demand

Demand is driven primarily by weather, as well as economic factors. Energy usage during November decreased 2.3% to 8,944 GWh from the 9,151 GWh used in November 2021. The average temperature during November was 47˚ Fahrenheit (F) in New England, up 5˚ from the previous November. The average dewpoint, a measure of humidity, was 34˚F in November, up 4˚ from the previous November. There were 2 cooling degree days⁴ (CDD) during November, while the normal number of CDD in November is 0 in New England. In November 2021, there were 0 CDD. There were 557 heating degree days (HDD) during November, while the normal number of HDD in November is 682 in New England. In November 2021, there were 690 HDD.

Consumer demand for electricity for the month peaked on November 21 during the hour from 5 to 6 p.m., when the temperature in New England was 35°F and the dewpoint was 17°. Demand reached 16,904 MW. The November 2022 peak was 0.8% lower than the November 2021 peak of 17,039 MW, set during the hour from 5 to 6 p.m. on November 30, when the temperature was 35°F and the dewpoint was 23°.

Peak demand is driven by weather, which drives the use of heating and air conditioning equipment. The all-time high winter peak was 22,818 MW, recorded during a cold snap in January 2004 when the temperature was -1°F and the dewpoint was -20°. The all-time peak demand in New England was 28,130 MW, recorded during an August 2006 heat wave, when the temperature was 94°F and the dewpoint was 74°. Air conditioning use is far more widespread than electric heating in New England, so weather tends to have a relatively greater impact on the summer peak than the winter peak.

November monthly peak demand and total and weather-normalized energy use

Fuel mix and emissions

The mix of resources used in any given time period depends on price and availability, as well as supplemental resource commitments needed to ensure system stability. Natural gas-fired and nuclear generation produced about 79% of the 8,153 GWh of electric energy generated within New England during November, at about 49% and 30%, respectively. Renewable resources generated about 13% of the energy produced within New England, including 4.9% from wood, refuse, and landfill gas; 5.0% from wind; and 2.8% from solar resources. Oil-fired resources generated 0.1%, and coal resources did not generate a statistically significant amount of electricity. Hydroelectric resources generated 7.9%. The region also saw net imports of about 952 GWh of electricity from neighboring regions.

November generation in New England, by fuel source

The mix of resources used to produce the region’s electricity is a key driver of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The ISO estimates these emissions through an analysis that blends data on electricity generation by fuel type with an emissions factor for each fuel that is based on data from the Environmental Protection Agency.

November estimated CO₂ emissions in New England, by fuel source (metric tons)

Emissions fell 9% year over year in November 2022, with New England power plants producing an estimated 2.2 million metric tons of CO₂.

Estimated CO₂ emissions from natural gas-fired plants—typically the largest source of emissions, due to the significant amount of power these resources produce—fell 7% year over year, from 1.71 million metric tons to 1.59 million metric tons, and accounted for 73% of the region’s estimated emissions.

Oil-fired resources produced an estimated 4,153 metric tons of CO₂, a year-over-year decrease of 59%. These resources accounted for 0.2% of the region’s total estimated CO₂ emissions in November. Coal-fired resources produced an estimated 347 metric tons of CO₂, about 0.02% of the region’s total CO₂emissions and a year-over-year drop of 34%.

CO₂ emissions from other resources—mostly refuse and wood—were estimated at 574,193 metric tons in November 2022, down 14% from last year. These resources accounted for 26% of the region’s estimated CO₂ emissions for the month.

_{¹One megawatt (MW) of electricity can serve about 750 to 1,000 average homes in New England. A megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity can serve about 1,000 homes for one hour. One gigawatt-hour (GWh) can serve about 1 million homes for one hour.}

_{²Weather-normalized demand indicates how much electricity would have been consumed if the weather had been the same as the average weather over the last 20 years.}

_{³A British thermal unit (Btu) is used to describe the heat value of fuels, providing a uniform standard for comparing different fuels. One million British thermal units are shown as MMBtu.}

_{⁴A degree day is a measure of heating or cooling. A zero degree day occurs when no heating or cooling is required; as temperatures drop, more heating days are recorded; when temperatures rise, more cooling days are recorded. The base point for measuring degree days is 65 degrees. Each degree of a day’s mean temperature that is above 65 degrees is counted as one cooling degree day, while each degree of a day’s mean temperature that is below 65 degrees is counted as one heating degree day. A day’s mean temperature of 90 degrees equals 25 cooling degree days, while a day’s mean temperature of 45 degrees equals 20 heating degree days.}