ISO-NE collaboration with Dartmouth assesses power system risks

A joint effort from ISO New England and Dartmouth Engineering has led to a more efficient way to assess rare but high-impact risks to large-scale power systems. The joint peer-reviewed research was recently published and featured by Nature Communications, one of the world’s leading scientific journals.

The paper, “Computationally efficient tail distribution-aware large-scale power system overloading risk assessment,” analyzes overload risks associated with extreme weather. These events occur infrequently but can have serious consequences for reliability.

“As the New England power grid faces increasing uncertainty arising from weather‑dependent generation and demand, it is critical to deepen our understanding of operational risk, particularly transmission security under extreme weather conditions,” said Tongxin Zheng, chief technologist for ISO New England’s Advanced Technology Solutions group.

The new method developed through this collaboration significantly reduces the computational burden needed when compared to traditional risk assessments, while also improving accuracy in the “tail” of risk distributions. Most planning looks at what happens most of the time. Tail distribution looks at what happens at the far edges, like during severe heat waves or cold snaps that occur only occasionally but put the most strain on the power system.

“Advanced analytical tools like these are becoming indispensable as the electric grid grows increasingly complex, dynamic, and uncertain,” said Junbo Zhao, associate professor of engineering at Dartmouth and corresponding author on the study. “This work shows what’s possible when researchers and industry partners come together to create practical, real-world solutions that improve reliability and keep the lights on for communities.”

ISO New England and Dartmouth regularly partner with other organizations in the region and have collaborated on other studies in the past. This project was conducted by Xiaochuan Luo, Mingguo Hong, and Slava Maslennikov with ISO New England, Dartmouth professor Junbo Zhao, and University of Connecticut students Bendong Tan and Ketian Ye.