ISO-NE publishes annual forecast of capacity, energy, loads, and transmission (CELT report)
ISO New England has published the 2021-2030 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT), a primary source for assumptions used in ISO system planning and reliability studies. The 2021 CELT projects that annual electricity usage in New England will increase slightly over the next decade as the region electrifies the heating and transportation sectors.
The CELT provides a snapshot of the New England power system, including:
- A long-term forecast for energy consumption and peak demand, including 10-year forecasts of energy efficiency, solar facilities, light-duty electric vehicles (EVs), and air-source heat pumps (ASHPs)
- The number of megawatts (MW) with capacity supply obligations, as well as the total generating capability of resources in the region
- A breakdown of the region’s generators by fuel type
- A link to the listing of transmission projects proposed, planned, and under construction
New England electricity projections for 2021 to 2030
The ISO develops the gross long-term forecast for electricity demand using state and regional economic forecasts, years of weather history in New England, and the EV and ASHP forecasts. Results of both the ISO’s energy-efficiency (EE) forecast and solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast are applied to the gross forecast to develop a net long-term forecast.
Gross forecast, not including EE, behind-the-meter PV:
- Overall electricity use in New England is expected to grow 1.6% annually over the 10-year period, from the expected 140,836 gigawatt-hours (GWh) this year to 165,116 GWh in 2030
- Peak demand under typical summer peak weather conditions (the “50/50” forecast) is expected to rise annually at a rate of 0.71%, from 28,324 megawatts (MW) this year to 30,177 MW in summer 2030 (peak demand is a measure of the highest amount of electricity used in a single hour)
- Peak demand under above average summer peak weather (the “90/10” forecast), such as an extended heat wave, pushes the gross forecast for peak demand up to 30,225 MW in 2021 and 32,197 MW in 2030
- Winter peak demand under typical winter peak weather conditions (the “50/50” forecast) is expected to rise by an average 1.34% annually, from 22,214 MW in 2021 to 25,041 MW in 2030
- Winter peak demand under below average winter peak weather (the “90/10” forecast) is forecasted to rise annually as well, from 22,853 MW in 2021 to 25,821 MW in 2030
Net forecast, including latest EE, behind-the-meter PV forecasts:
- Overall electricity use is expected to increase, by 1.1% annually, from 121,692 GWh this year to 133,960 GWh in 2030.
- EE is projected to save the region 15,879 GWh in 2021 and up to 22,423 GWh in 2030
- BTM PV is projected to reduce grid demand by 3,265 GWh in 2021, rising to about 6,733 GWh in 2030
- Light-duty EVs are expected to account for 3,554 GWh of grid demand in 2030, while ASHPs are expected to account for 2,526 GWh that year
- Peak demand under typical summer peak weather conditions is expected to remain flat over the 10-year period, decreasing from 24,810 MW this year to 24,796 MW in 2030.
- The net forecast includes peak demand reductions of 836 MW this year and rising to 1,087 MW in summer 2030 as a result of behind-the-meter PV
- Peak demand under above average summer peak weather is expected to remain essentially flat, with a slight annual decline, from 26,711 MW in 2021 to 26,639 MW in 2030
- Transportation electrification from EVs is forecasted to contribute 675 MW to peak demand in 2030
- Winter peak demand is forecasted to increase an average of about 0.72% annually under normal conditions, and 0.77% under below average conditions. For normal winter weather, net peak demand is expected to increase from 19,710 MW this year to 21,031 MW in 2030-2031; for below average winter weather, the net peak is forecasted to increase from 20,349 MW this year to 21,811 MW in 2030-2031
- Transportation electrification from EVs is forecasted to contribute 916 MW to the winter peak in 2030-2031
- Heating electrification is forecasted to contribute 1,556 MW to the winter peak in 2030-2031