ISO-NE presents final draft 2020 10-Year forecasts for heating electrification and light-duty electric vehicles

The electrification of the heating and transportation sectors is expected to play a pivotal role in meeting the New England states’ greenhouse gas reduction mandates and goals over the coming decades. To help ensure the power grid is prepared for the clean-energy future, ISO New England is expanding its 10-year planning forecasts to capture growth in air source heat pumps and light-duty electric vehicles and to quantify resulting increases in grid electricity demand. In February 2020, the ISO published its first Final Draft 2020 Heating Electrification Forecast and Final Draft 2020 Transportation Electrification Forecast.

The ISO forecasts that by 2029 roughly 750,000 air source heat pumps will be installed in New England with a near 600 megawatt (MW) increase in load during the winter months. Light-duty electric vehicles (including cars and light-duty trucks) are estimated to number over 515,000 regionwide, adding up to 400 MW of load a month by the end of 2029. Final forecasts will be published in the ISO’s 2020 Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission Report, which is released in May and is used for power system planning and reliability studies.

The ISO recognizes that heating and transportation electrification are nascent trends and views its 2020 forecast methodology as a starting point. Improvements will be needed as policy drivers and state initiatives are further developed and additional data become available.