Operational Fuel-Security Analysis released
ISO New England today released its Operational Fuel-Security Analysis, a study assessing whether possible future resource combinations would have enough fuel to ensure bulk power system reliability throughout an entire winter. The results indicate that maintaining reliability is likely to become more challenging, especially if current power system trends continue.
The study was launched in 2016 to quantify the region’s future fuel-security risk—the possibility that power plants won’t have or be able to get the fuel they need to meet consumer demand and maintain power system reliability, particularly during winter. The ISO’s experiences operating the system through challenging winter conditions and its observations regarding trends affecting power system operations were key drivers for the study.
Five variables were key elements of the analysis: the retirements of coal- and oil-fired power plants; the availability of liquefied natural gas; oil inventories at dual-fuel generators; electricity imports; and additional renewable resources. Twenty-three hypothetical fuel-mix and outage scenarios in winter 2024/2025 were examined. The operational analysis measured if enough fuel would be available to meet demand and preserve reliability and, if not, the study quantified the frequency, severity, and duration of emergency actions that would be required.