2017 forecast of capacity, energy, loads, and transmission is published by ISO-NE
Wednesday, May 3, 2017 at 2:35PM
ISO New England in Industry News & Developments, demand resources, energy efficiency, fcm, forecast, solar

Energy usage will decline slightly and peak demand will remain flat over the next 10 years

On May 1, 2017, ISO New England published the 2017-2026 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT). The report is a primary source for assumptions used in ISO system planning and reliability studies. It provides a snapshot of the New England power system, including:

The long-term forecast for electricity use is developed each year using state and regional economic forecasts, 40 years of weather history in New England, results of both the ISO’s energy-efficiency (EE) forecast and solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast, and other factors. The ISO calculates a gross forecast and then applies the EE and PV forecasts to develop a net forecast.

The 2017 CELT projects that energy usage will decline slightly in New England and peak demand will remain flat over the 10-year period. The primary factors are continuing robust installation of energy-efficiency measures and behind-the-meter solar arrays throughout the region, as well as a slightly lower forecast for economic growth in New England.

CELT projections for 2017 to 2026

Gross forecast not including EE and behind-the-meter PV:

Forecast including latest EE and behind-the-meter PV forecasts:

 

2016 energy and demand

Looking back at 2016, actual energy usage dropped 2.0%, from 126,955 GWh in 2015 to 124,382 GWh last year.

In 2016, actual demand peaked at 25,596 MW on August 12, 2016. Without the energy-efficiency measures installed in New England, as well as reductions by demand-response resources, price-responsive demand-side resources, and behind-the-meter solar resources, the peak would have come in at about 28,504 MW.

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Article originally appeared on ISO Newswire (http://isonewswire.com/).
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