2019 forecast of capacity, energy, loads, and transmission is published by ISO-NE
Thursday, May 2, 2019 at 1:20PM
ISO New England in Industry News & Developments, demand resources, energy efficiency, fcm, forecast, solar

Energy usage and peak demand will decline slightly over the next 10 years

On May 1, 2019, the ISO published the 2019-2028 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT). The report is a primary source for assumptions used in ISO system planning and reliability studies. It provides a snapshot of the New England power system, including:

The long-term forecast for electricity use is developed each year using state and regional economic forecasts, 25 years of weather history in New England, results of both the ISO’s energy-efficiency (EE) forecast and solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast, and other factors. The ISO calculates a gross forecast and then applies the EE and PV forecasts to develop a net forecast. 

The 2019 CELT projects that both energy usage and peak demand will decline slightly in New England over the 10-year period. The primary factors are continuing robust installation of energy-efficiency measures and behind-the-meter solar arrays throughout the region.

CELT projections for 2019 to 2028

Gross forecast, not including EE and behind-the-meter PV

Net forecast, including latest EE and behind-the-meter PV forecasts

 

2018 energy and demand

In 2018, actual energy usage rose 1.8%, from 121,216 GWh in 2017 to 123,360 GWh last year, primarily due to a hotter summer in 2018 than 2017, which caused greater demand for cooling. If normal weather had occurred in both years, energy usage would have been flat with a 0.1% decline as well, from a weather-normalized value of 120,668 GWh in 2017 to 120,560 GWh last year.

In 2018, actual demand peaked at 26,024 MW on August 29, 2018, during the hour from 4 to 5 p.m. Without the energy-efficiency measures installed in New England, as well as reductions by demand-response resources, price-responsive demand-side resources, and behind-the-meter solar resources, the peak would have come in at about 29,898 MW. 

During winter 2018/2019, demand peaked at 20,740 MW during the hour from 5 to 6 p.m. on January 21, 2019. Without active demand-response resources and energy-efficiency measures, the peak would have been 23,925 MW. Behind-the-meter solar does not contribute to reducing winter peak load because demand peaks in winter after the sun has set.

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Article originally appeared on ISO Newswire (http://isonewswire.com/).
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