2018 forecast of capacity, energy, loads, and transmission is published by ISO-NE
Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 3:21PM
ISO New England in Industry News & Developments, demand resources, energy efficiency, fcm, peak demand, solar

Energy usage and peak demand will decline slightly over the next 10 years

On April 30, 2018, ISO New England published the 2018-2027 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT). The report is a primary source for assumptions used in ISO system planning and reliability studies. It provides a snapshot of the New England power system, including:

The long-term forecast for electricity use is developed each year using state and regional economic forecasts, 40 years of weather history in New England, results of both the ISO’s energy-efficiency (EE) forecast and solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast, and other factors. The ISO calculates a gross forecast and then applies the EE and PV forecasts to develop a net forecast.

The 2018 CELT projects that both energy usage and peak demand will decline slightly in New England over the 10-year period. The primary factors are continuing robust installation of energy-efficiency measures and behind-the-meter solar arrays throughout the region.

CELT projections for 2018 to 2027 

Gross forecast, not including EE and behind-the-meter PV

Net forecast, including latest EE and behind-the-meter PV forecasts

2017 energy and demand

In 2017, actual energy usage dropped 2.6%, from 124,425 GWh in 2016 to 121,134 GWh last year. If normal weather had occurred in both years, the decline would have been 2.6% as well, from a weather-normalized value of 120,668 GWh to 123,953 GWh.

In 2017, actual demand peaked at 23,968 MW on June 13, 2017, during the hour from 4 to 5 p.m. Without the energy-efficiency measures installed in New England, as well as reductions by demand-response resources, price-responsive demand-side resources, and behind-the-meter solar resources, the peak would have come in at about 27,014 MW. A summer peak in June is unusual; summer peak more typically occurs in July or August, but those months were relatively mild in 2017. Had the heat and humidity of June 13 occurred in July or August, the ISO estimates that actual peak demand would have been about 2,050 higher.

During winter 2017/2018, demand peaked at 20,599 MW during the hour from 5 to 6 p.m. on January 5. Without active demand-response resources and energy-efficiency measures, the peak would have been 23,528 MW. Behind-the-meter solar does not contribute to reducing winter peak load because demand peaks in winter after the sun has set.

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Article originally appeared on ISO Newswire (http://isonewswire.com/).
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