ISO-NE has published its annual CELT, energy efficiency, and PV forecasts
ISO New England has published its 2016-2025 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT), a primary source for assumptions used in ISO system planning and reliability studies. It provides a 10-year snapshot of the New England power system, including the total generating capacity of resources in the region, the breakdown of the region’s generators by fuel type, a link to the list of transmission projects proposed, planned, and under construction to ensure system reliability, and the long-term forecast for growth in energy use and peak demand. ISO New England’s long-term forecast for electricity use is developed each year using state and regional economic forecasts, 40 years of weather history in New England, and other factors. The CELT also includes results from the ISO’s latest energy-efficiency (EE) forecast and solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast, which project the load-reducing effects of EE resources and “behind-the-meter” PV resources connected at customer sites to local distribution systems.
CELT projections for 2016 to 2025
Gross forecast not including EE and behind-the-meter PV
- Overall electricity use in New England is expected to grow 1.0% annually over the 10-year period, from 140,269 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2016 to 152,731 GWh in 2025
- Peak demand under normal weather conditions of about 90°F (the “50/50” forecast) is expected to rise annually at a rate of 1.0%, from 28,966 MW in 2016 to 31,794 MW in 2025 (peak demand is a measure of the highest amount of electricity used in a single hour)
- Peak demand under extreme summer weather (the “90/10” forecast), such as an extended heat wave of about 94°F, pushes the gross forecast for peak demand up to 31,303 MW in 2016 and 34,452 MW in 2025—an average annual growth rate of 1.1%
Forecast including latest EE and behind-the-meter PV forecasts
- Overall electricity use falls to a -0.2% annual growth rate, from 128,014 GWh in 2016 to 125,213 GWh in 2025
- Peak demand under normal weather conditions is expected to slow to a 0.2% annual growth rate, from 26,704 MW in 2016 to 27,122 MW in 2025
- Peak demand under extreme summer weather is expected to slow to 0.3% annually, from 29,042 MW in 2016 to 29,781 MW in 2025
2015 energy and demand
Looking back at 2015, actual electric energy usage declined by 0.2%, to 126,899 GWh, compared to 2014 demand. In 2015, actual demand peaked at 24,437 MW on July 20, 2015. Without the energy-efficiency measures installed in New England, as well as reductions by demand-response resources, price-responsive demand-side resources, and behind-the-meter solar resources, the peak would have come in at about 26,472 MW.
- For more on the 2016 EE and DG forecasts, read ISO-NE marks Earth Day 2016 with an update on energy-efficiency, solar, and wind resources in New England.
- Get key statistics on New England’s electricity use and resource mix.
- Track the regional “fuel mix” in real time via ISO Express.
- Read about the challenges involved in the integration of renewable resources and other new technologies.